Abnormal 2013/2014 season sao vicente

[mvandijk]

Dear readers,

We would hate for you to get disappointed about the wind in Sao Vicente (a Cape Verde island). Normally the time with good wind from mid-October until the end of June is above 95%.

Judging by abnormal Atlantic weather patterns during the past summer and the lack of wind at the beginning of this season, we predict a bad year. So,

please keep in mind that during the 2013/2014 season, the % of time with good wind may be much lower than normal !!

Here's why we predict a bad season:

This season so far (starting mid-October and looking ahead at forecasts till mid-December), we will get dramatically little wind in Sao Vicente!

From past experience, La Nina occurring during the winter is associated with a dip in wind strength.
But this year we do not have La Nina! (nor El Nino). So are there other anomalies that could be associated with the lack of trade wind in the Atlantic? The anomaly this year seems to be the lack of hurricanes (intensity of hurricanes is lowest since 1984 -2013 and was the sixth-least-active Atlantic hurricane season since 1950).

Can we check the theory of association between low hurricane season intensity and lower intensity trade winds? Another recent year with lower than usual hurricane activity was 2009 (hurricane intensity was below average but not as extreme as 2013).  So how was the wind during that season?
It was in fact a season with less wind than usual (5 days without wind per month usual versus the usual 1-2 days without wind per month).

So perhaps a summer of low hurricane activity is predictive of a season with less wind than usual.
Of course, we don’t know for sure. Time and rigorous research will tell.

But if it is true, we are in for a bad 2013/2014 season. Judging by the extent of lack of hurricane intensity (more pronounced in 2013 compared to 2009) and earlier start of the period without wind (November, instead of December), if one super-imposes on the 2009/2010 experience, we may be faced with many windless days until the end of March 2014!!
In terms of time with good wind, during normal years this is above 95% for the period mid-October till end June. During the bad season of 2009-2010 this was 83%. During this season, it may be as low as 60%!!!

[piede]

Hehe, een local die zat is van al die toeristen

[Tsss]

Eigenlijk een meer dan correcte ondernemer op het eiland.
Ik zou ze lekker laten komen als ik hem was...

[mvandijk]

Eigenlijk een meer dan correcte ondernemer op het eiland.
Ik zou ze lekker laten komen als ik hem was...

The 2 pillars of our company:
1) customer satisfaction
2) contribute to the local community

Not having enough wind does not support customer satisfaction, so:
- forget short term gains
- stick with your reputation which is important in long-term

[Eagle-Jan]

gewoon goede sluikreklame... 5 dgn geen wind in de maand...  ooh wat errug!!!
stelvoor dat je niet moe weer aan het werk gaat na je vakantie.

[mvandijk]

gewoon goede sluikreklame... 5 dgn geen wind in de maand...  ooh wat errug!!!
stelvoor dat je niet moe weer aan het werk gaat na je vakantie.

The normal reaction I expect from potential clients is not to come to Sao Vicente or postpone. We have also written to all our clients intending to come or considering to come. As a result some are cancelling and some are postponing.
- a warning about a long period (till the end of March 2014)
- cancellations and therefore a substantial loss of income.

Does that sound like: "Sluikreclame" ???

We did exactly the same in the first part of the season in 2010 because of a global weather pattern called La Nina. At many winter kite destinations around the word, kiters were complaining about the lack of wind. As far as I know, we were the only kite center warning (potential) clients in advance.

Does that sound like: "Sluikreclame" ???

[Frank82]

Waarom praat je overigens Engels? Dit is een NL forum en volgens mij ben jij ook Nederlander?

[mvandijk]

Waarom praat je overigens Engels? Dit is een NL forum en volgens mij ben jij ook Nederlander?

Sorry, ik heb al 25 jaar bijna niet in NL geschreven ! Kost veel tijd, veel fouten en bijna iedereen begrijpt het Engels.

[Frank82]

That's cool, was just wondering

[bramvk]

Mvandijk,

How is the wind developing over there at Sao Vicente?  Still no good? Your advise still valid? We are considering to came over there in May.

[mvandijk]

The period mid-November till mid-December had a lot a days with little wind.
mid-December till yesterday had a lot of days with more wind than normal (even used 4m kites at one point).
Now, prediction is for little wind for 3 days.
Temperature is lower than normal
We received a tiny bit or rain

All of the above is abnormal

I do think the weather will normalize in the next few weeks so hope that by the end of March the normal weather pattern will be back again.